Forecast Methods for Inseason Management of the Southeast Alaska Chinook Salmon Troll Fishery
J.J. Pella, M.M. Masuda, and D.G. Chen
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Under an agreement among U.S. commissioners of the Pacific Salmon Commission (Allen 1996), the allowable catch of chinook salmon in Southeast Alaska for 1997 depended on abundance in the fishery. Historically, abundance has been forecast prior to the summer fishery and evaluated later, from numerous information sources, by the Chinook Technical Committee of the Pacific Salmon Commission. Here, early catch rates during the summer fishery are shown to reflect abundance and are used to update the preseason forecast for use by the commissioners in assessing the allowable catch. The Bayesian calibrative distribution for the updated abundance provides the inseason statistical description of its uncertainty arising from unknown parameter values and random variables of underlying models. Cross validation shows that the mode of the Bayesian calibrative distribution would have produced more accurate forecasts than either the preseason forecast or a maximum likelihood forecast from the early catch rates alone.
- Item number: AK-SG-98-01n
- Year: 1998
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.4027/fsam.1998.14