Modeling of Chub Mackerel (Scomber japonicus) and Sardine (Sardinops sagax melanosticta) During the Annual Migration Cycle

Modeling of Chub Mackerel (Scomber japonicus) and Sardine (Sardinops sagax melanosticta) During the Annual Migration Cycle

Mikhail V. Pavlychev, V.A. Belayev, E.Y. Frisman, and Vadim P. Pavlychev

Modeling of Chub Mackerel (Scomber japonicus) and Sardine (Sardinops sagax melanosticta) During the Annual Migration CycleThis is part of Ecosystem Approaches for Fisheries Management
PDF    
To download the free PDF [453.3 KB], please enter:
-or-

Description

In this work we have attempted to mathematically describe chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) and sardine (Sardinops sagax melanostricta) migrations, and construct a model and verify it by retrospective forecast. Three models are described. The first is constructed based on a linear migration model excluding any environmental factors. The second is constructed by taking into account the thermocline depth. The third model adds the additional characteristic of a temperature gradient in the thermocline. Positive results permit predicting migrations one month in advance for April-June and September-October for chub mackerel and for January-April and September-October for sardine.

Item details