Predictability of Returns of Sockeye Salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) to Bristol Bay, Alaska, 1-4 Years in the Future

Predictability of Returns of Sockeye Salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) to Bristol Bay, Alaska, 1-4 Years in the Future

Milo D. Adkison and Randall M. Peterman

Predictability of Returns of Sockeye Salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) to Bristol Bay, Alaska, 1-4 Years in the FutureThis is part of Ecosystem Approaches for Fisheries Management
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Description

A variety of forecasting methods has been used to forecast Bristol Bay sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) returns 1 year into the future (Fried and Yuen 1987, Rogers 1997, Cross 1998). However, none of the methods has performed exceptionally well, particularly recently. Our purpose in this study was to improve the accuracy of preseason forecasts of sockeye salmon returns to Bristol Bay by selecting the most appropriate set of independent variables for forecasting. In addition, we wanted a reliable estimate of the uncertainty of such forecasts, a goal that may be even more important for some purposes.

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