 Radio Script 2001 __________________ Nations Agree: Humans Cause Climate Warming
STORY:The meeting was of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Delegates from 101 nations, including the United States, Japan, England, and Saudi Arabia, spent four days going over each line of the 1,000-page report. Dr. Kevin Trenberth, head of climate analysis at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, was present when delegates voted unanimously to approve the report. He says the panel issued its strongest statement yet about the cause of climate warming. TRENBERTH: "There were some statements, and one of the highlighted statements which will probably receive a lot of press is the following: 'There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.' That's an official statement of the IPCC." Scientists say average global temperatures have increased by about one-half a degree over the last 100 years. Trenberth says much of that warming occurred within the last decade. TRENBERTH: "The warmest year was 1998; the warmest decade was the last ten years, that includes the year 2000. The year 2000 as a whole was very close to 1999 in terms of its overall warmth. The warmth of recent years is the big factor in establishing that this stuff is real." A better understanding of how the climate works also has allowed scientists to make predictions of what the global climate will likely be in the future. The UN panel's report predicts that if emissions of greenhouse gasses are not curtailed, world temperatures will increase over the next century from 1.4 degrees to as much as 5.8 degrees Celsius—that's about 3 degrees to 11 degrees Fahrenheit. TRENBERTH: "The message for the general public should be that this is a real problem, that climate change is happening. It's projected to occur at a rate in the future that's unlike anything seen in the last 10,000 years, and that rate is likely therefore to be disruptive." While the average global temperature has risen less than a degree over the last century, temperatures in the Arctic have increased far more. Dr. Gunter Weller is the director of the Center for Global Change and Arctic System Research at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. WELLER: "There's no doubt that the climate signal has shown a temperature increase on the order of one degree Celsius per decade over the last three decades in the annual mean. A much stronger signal." Weller says such warming has already triggered changes in the Arctic climate. Melting permafrost, warmer winters and thinner sea ice over the North Pole are just a few of the changes. WELLER: "You see it physically in the climate in which we live here in Fairbanks. The climate in winter is considerably warmer than it used to be when I came here 30 years ago. The consequences are also pretty noticeable. Colleagues of mine here have looked at the glacier mass-balances around the state and also in other parts of the Arctic. Practically all the glaciers are having a negative mass-balance. They are melting. They are losing mass and beginning to raise sea level, which is an indication of a warmer climate. Even more pronounced is the warming of the permafrost. The whole picture is pretty systematic. All the snow and ice features, including river ice and lake ice, are diminished as a consequence of a warmer climate. There's no doubt that climate warming has made big transformations in the Arctic environment almost everywhere." Now that most industrial countries have agreed on what's causing the problem, they must next agree on how to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other so-called greenhouse gasses that cause climate warming. OUTRO:This is Arctic Science Journeys Radio, a production of the Alaska Sea Grant Program and the University of Alaska Fairbanks. I'm Doug Schneider. Audio version and related Web sites Thanks to the following individuals for help preparing this script:
Kevin Trenberth, Director
Gunter Weller, Director Arctic Science Journeys is a radio service highlighting science, culture, and the environment of the circumpolar north. Produced by the Alaska Sea Grant College Program and the University of Alaska Fairbanks.
Alaska Sea Grant In the News The URL for
this page is http://seagrant.uaf.edu/news/ |
Listen to story on RealAudio Related Web sites Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change National Center for Atmospheric Research More about Kevin Trenberth Center for Global Change and Arctic System Research |