Alaska Sea Grant


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Fishery Stock Assessment Models for the 21st Century: Combining Multiple Information Sources

15th Lowell Wakefield Fisheries Symposium

Anchorage, Alaska, USA
October 8-11, 1997

Contact: Brenda Baxter, fyconf@uaf.edu


Preliminary Program

Wednesday, October 8, 1997

Registration and Continental Breakfast

Welcome and Introduction
Terrance J. Quinn II, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Juneau, Alaska

Keynote
Keith Sainsbury, CSIRO, Fisheries Division, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia


SESSION I - DATA CONFLICTS AND MODEL SPECIFICATION

Chair: Fritz Funk, Alaska Department of Fish and Game

A Practical Framework for Fisheries Stock Assessment
Jon T. Schnute and Laura J. Richards, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Biological Station, Nanaimo, British Columbia

A Statistical Framework for Analysis of Precautionary Reference Points
Laura J. Richards and Jon T. Schnute, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Biological Station, Nanaimo, British Columbia

Joint Time Series Analysis of Catch-at-Age and CPUE Data
Gudmundur Gudmundsson, Central Bank of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland

Dynamics of an Age-by-Region Fish Population Model
Jonathan Heifetz, National Marine Fisheries Service, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Juneau, Alaska
Terrance J. Quinn II, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fisheries Division, Juneau, Alaska

Intraseasonal Assessment of the Scotia-Fundy Herring Stock
D.E. Lane, University of Ottawa, Faculty of Administration, Ottawa, Ontario
R.L. Stephenson, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Biological Station, St. Andrews, New Brunswick
S. Storey, University of Ottawa, Master's Program in Systems Science, Ottawa, Ontario

Using CWT Recoveries and Fishery Effort in a State-Space Model of Adult Salmon Migration and Mortality
Ken B. Newman, University of Idaho, Division of Statistics, Moscow, Idaho

A Multivariate Time Series Analysis of Walleye Pollock Population Dynamics
Keith R. Criddle, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Economics Department, Fairbanks, Alaska

Stock Assessment of Gemfish (Rexea solandri) in Eastern Australia Using Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Methods
Andre E. Punt and Anthony D.M. Smith, CSIRO Division of Marine Research, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

Exploitation and Use of Rainbow Trout Stocks in British Columbia Small Lakes
Sean Cox, University of British Columbia, Department of Resource Management and Environmental Studies, Vancouver, British Columbia
Carl Walters and Eric Parkinson, University of British Columbia, Department of Zoology, Vancouver, British Columbia

Integrating Assessment Model Results Derived from Alternative Model Assumptions or Conflicting Information Sources
Ramon J. Conser, National Marine Fisheries Service, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Newport, Oregon

Modeling Walleye Pollock Recruitment in the Eastern Bering Sea: Use of Physical Data Integrated with Stock Assessment Information
James N. Ianelli, National Marine Fisheries Service, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, Washington
David Fournier, Otter Consulting, Ltd., Nanaimo, British Columbia

Bayesian Methods for Inseason Management of the Southeast Alaska Chinook Salmon Troll Fishery
Jerome Pella, Michele Masuda, and others, National Marine Fisheries Service, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Juneau, Alaska

A Monte Carlo Evaluation of the Stock Synthesis Assessment Model
David B. Sampson and Yanshui Yin, Oregon State University, Coastal Oregon Marine Experiment Station, Newport, Oregon

Effects of Sampling Errors on Estimates of Recruitment and Fishing Mortality from Separable Virtual Population Analysis
E. Dorval, Old Dominion University, Department of Biological Sciences, Newport, Virginia
C.M. Jones, Old Dominion University, Applied Marine Research Laboratory, Newport, Virginia
Douglas S. Vaughan, National Marine Fisheries Service, Beaufort Laboratory, Beaufort, North Carolina

Fuzzy Regression in Fisheries Science--Methodology and Applications
Saul B. Saila, University of Rhode Island, Graduate School of Oceanography, Narragansett, Rhode Island
Scott Ferson, Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York

Evaluation of Assumed Error Structure in Stock Assessment Models that Use Sample Estimates of Age Composition
Paul R. Crone, National Marine Fisheries Service, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Newport, Oregon
David B. Sampson, Oregon State University, Coastal Oregon Marine Experiment Station, Newport, Oregon

Error-in-Variables Model Approach to Fishery Stock Assessment
Han-Lin Lai, National Marine Fisheries Service, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
Chang-Ik Zhang, Pukyong National University, College of Fisheries Sciences, Pusan, Korea

Adjourn

Reception and Poster Session I


Thursday, October 9, 1997

Registration and Continental Breakfast


SESSION I - DATA CONFLICTS AND MODEL SPECIFICATION (cont'd.)

A Parametric Bootstrap of Catch-Age Compositions Using the Beta Distribution
Erik H. Williams and Terrance J. Quinn II, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fisheries Division, Juneau, Alaska

Toward More Comprehensive Sensitivity Analyses of Fishery Stock Assessment Models
Joseph E. Powers, National Marine Fisheries Service, Southeast Fisheries Science Center, Miami, Florida

The Intrinsic Limits of Catch Rate Variances and Their Application to Stock Assessment Models
Clay E. Porch, National Marine Fisheries Service, Southeast Fisheries Science Center, Miami, Florida

Evaluating the Consistency Between Catch-at-Age Data and Abundance Indices
Stratis Gavaris and Lou Van Eeckhaute, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Biological Station, St. Andrews, New Brunswick

Misspecification or Data Bias: The Assessment of Prince Rupert Herring
Jake Schweigert, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Pacific Biological Station, Nanaimo, British Columbia

Can Simple 20th Century Depletion Models Still Play a Useful Role?
Victor R. Restrepo, Mauricio Ortiz, and Christopher M. Legault, University of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, Florida

Model Misspecification, Information Weighting, and Restructuring the Pacific Halibut Stock Assessment
Patrick J. Sullivan and Ana M. Parma, International Pacific Halibut Commission, Seattle, Washington

When Auxiliary Data Become Primary: The Complex Case of Bocaccio
Stephen Ralston, National Marine Fisheries Service, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Tiburon, California
James N. Ianelli, National Marine Fisheries Service, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, Washington

A Multi-Stock Catch-Age Model Which Incorporates Mark-Recapture Data: Application to British Columbia Sablefish Stocks
Vivian Haist, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Pacific Biological Station, Nanaimo, British Columbia
David Fournier, Otter Consulting Ltd., Nanaimo, British Columbia

A Bayesian Approach to Integrating Multiple Studies Testing Ecosystem-Level Hypotheses: Sea Otters after the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill
Milo D. Adkison, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fisheries Division, Juneau, Alaska
Brenda Ballachey, Leslie Holland-Bartels, and James Bodkin, National Biological Service, Anchorage, Alaska


Adjourn

Optional Sightseeing Trip (afternoon)

Social Hour and Poster Session II (evening)


Friday, October 10, 1997

Registration and Continental Breakfast


SESSION II - STAGE-STRUCTURED APPLICATIONS

Chair: Jim Ianelli, National Marine Fisheries Service

Progress and Problems in the Application of Management Procedures to South Africa's Major Fisheries, Particularly the Sardine-Anchovy Complex
J.A.A. de Oliveira and D.S. Butterworth, University of Cape Town, Department of Applied Mathematics, Rondebosch, South Africa

Effect of Biased Data on Abundance Estimation: A Retrospective Analysis of Sablefish, Anoplopoma fimbria, in Alaska
Michael F. Sigler, National Marine Fisheries Service, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Juneau, Alaska

A Length-Based Population Model for Hard-to-Age Invertebrate Populations
Terrance J. Quinn II and Caihong Fu, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fisheries Division, Juneau, Alaska
Clive T. Turnbull, Northern Fisheries Centre, Cairns, Queensland, Australia

Using Catch, Effort, and Length-Frequency Data to Estimate Relative Abundance and Growth of Pink Shrimp, Pandalus borealis, in Southeast Alaska
Peggy Murphy and Jie Zheng, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Commercial Fisheries Management and Development Division, Juneau, Alaska

Evaluation of Multiple Data Sources for Estimating Weathervane Scallop, Patinopecten caurinus, Abundance
William R. Bechtol, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Homer, Alaska

Maximizing the Utility of Run Age Composition and Aerial Survey Data Used to Forecast Pacific Herring, Clupea pallasi, Biomass in Kamishak Bay, Alaska
Edward O. Otis, William R. Bechtol, and Wesley A. Bucher, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Homer, Alaska

Catches of Pacific Herring, Clupea pallasi, in Shelikof Strait as Predictors of Kamishak Bay Year Class Strength
William R. Bechtol and Edward A. Otis, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Homer, Alaska

Use of Multiple Data Sets to Assess Red King Crab, Paralithodes camtschaticus, in Norton Sound, Alaska: A Length-Based Stock Synthesis Approach
Jie Zheng and Gordon H. Kruse, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Commercial Fisheries Management and Development Division, Juneau, Alaska
Lowell Fair, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Commercial Fisheries Management and Development Division, Anchorage, Alaska

Combining Data from Several Sources in a Model of the Western Rock Lobster, Panulirus cygnus, Fishery of Western Australia
N. G. Hall, Western Australian Marine Research Laboratories, Fisheries Department, Perth, Western Australia

Incorporation of Uncertainties Into Stock Assessment: The Example Used for Southern Bluefin Tuna
Sachiko Tsuji, National Research Institute of Far Seas Fisheries, Shimizu, Japan

Treatment of Data and Model Uncertainties in the Assessment of Southern Bluefin Tuna Stocks
Tom Polacheck, Ann Preece, Andrew Betlehem, Neil Klaer, CSIRO Division of Marine Research, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

Applying Data Assimilation Techniques to Fishery Stock Assessment Models
Mark Huiskes, Wageningen Agricultural University, Department of Mathematics, Wageningen, The Netherlands


SESSION III - OCEAN ECOSYSTEMS

Chair: Pat Sullivan, International Pacific Halibut Commission

Mass-Balance Food Web Ecosystem Models as an Alternative Approach For Combining Multiple Information Sources in Fisheries
Daniel Pauly, University of British Columbia, Fisheries Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia
Stuart Pimm, The University of Tennessee, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Knoxville, Tennessee

Catchability as a Function of Stock and Environmental Sources of Variation: An Approach Applied to the Sardine Fishery on the Gulf of California
Francisco Arreguín-Sánchez, Centro Interdisciplinario de Ciencias Marinas del IPN, La Paz, Baja California Sur, México
Susana Martínez, Centro Regional de Investigación Pesquera de La Paz, La Paz, Baja California Sur, México

Modeling Predator Mortality in the Gulf of Alaska Walleye Pollock Assessment
Anne B. Hollowed, Patricia A. Livingston, and James N. Ianelli, National Marine Fisheries Service, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, Washington

Ecological Interactions and Optimum Harvesting Strategies in a Two-Species Mackerel Fishery
Ernesto A. Chavez, Centro Interdisciplinario de Ciencias Marinas (CICIMAR), La Paz, BCS México

Estimating Capelin Consumption by the Icelandic Cod Stock
Höskuldur Björnsson, Marine Research Institute, Reykjavík, Iceland

Methods of Estimating Stocks of Small Fishes
S.O. Tsarin, Institute of Biology of Southern Seas, National Ukrainian Academy of Sciences, Sevastopol, Ukraine

Analysis of Fish Distribution and Abundance Patterns: A Geographical Information System Approach
A.J. Booth, Rhodes University, Department of Ichthyology and Fisheries Science, Grahamstown, South Africa

Comparing Different Information Sources
Gunnar Stefánsson and Ólafur K. Pálsson, Marine Research Institute, Reykjavík, Iceland

The IBSS Hydrobiological Databank: Its Importance for Fishing
Sergey M. Ignatyev, Institute of Biology of the Southern Seas (IBSS), Sevastopol, Ukraine

Adjourn

Social Hour and Poster Session III


Saturday, October 11, 1997

Continental Breakfast


SESSION III - OCEAN ECOSYSTEMS (cont'd.)

A Multivariate Interdisciplinary Assessment of the Health of Herring, Sardine, and Anchovy Fisheries
Tony Pitcher, Stephen Mackinson, and Marcelo Vasconcellos, University of British Columbia, Fisheries Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia

A Practical Stock Analysis Model
R. Baleña, Ocean-Weather Laboratory, Iloilo City, Philippines

Forecast of Pelagic Fishes Fluctuations in the Northwest Pacific for 21st Century: Dream or Reality?
V.A. Belayev, TINRO, Vladivostok, Russia

A Multivariate Interdisciplinary Assessment of the "Health" of Tropical Artisanal Fisheries
Dave Preikshot and Daniel Pauly, University of British Columbia, Fisheries Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia

Mixed Populations: The Analysis of Community Dynamics
Clive Migosi Angwenyi, Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute, Mombasa, Kenya


SESSION IV - HARVEST POLICY

Chair: Jane DiComiso, North Pacific Fishery Management Council

Stock Assessment in the Future: Fine-Tuning the Blind Alleys or Confronting the Issues?
K.L. Cochrane, Fisheries and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy

Importance of Incorporating Uncertainty in Stock-Recruit Parameters into Simple Stochastic Models of Salmon Population Dynamics
Ryan A. Hill, Triton Environmental Consultants Ltd., Richmond, British Columbia
Josh Korman, Vancouver, British Columbia

Searching for a New Approach to Fisheries Management in the Lower Amazon, Brazil
Victoria J. Isaac, David McGrath, and Mauro I. Ruffino, Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi, Dpto de Zoologia, Belém-PA, Brazil

Graphical Presentations of Assessment Uncertainties
Stratis Gavaris, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Biological Station, St. Andrews, New Brunswick
Alan Sinclair, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Gulf Fisheries Centre, Moncton, New Brunswick

From Stock Assessment to Fisheries Management and Recorded Catches: A Case Study for Some European Fish Stocks (1983-1995)
D. Gascuel, G. Fontenelle, and C. Maguer, Laboratoire Halieutique, Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Rennes, Rennes cedex, France
A. Biseau, Laboratoire Ressources Halieutiques, IFREMER, Lorient, France

A General Approach for Short-Term Stochastic Projections in Age-Structured Fisheries Assessment Models
Jon Brodziak and Ramon J. Conser, National Marine Fisheries Service, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Newport, Oregon
Paul Rago, National Marine Fisheries Service, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Woods Hole, Massachusetts

The Economic Analysis of Taiwan's 200-Mile Jurisdiction over Fishery Management
Cheng-wei Chen, National Taiwan University, Department of Agricultural Economics, Taipei, Taiwan, R.O.C.

The Effect of Aging Error and Sample Size on Estimates of Sustained Yield
Lewis G. Coggins Jr., Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Kodiak, Alaska
Terrance J. Quinn II, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fisheries Division, Juneau, Alaska

Artisanal Fisheries Impact on Penaeid Shrimp Stock Assessment
Adolfo Gracia, Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, México, D. F. México

Spawning Potential: New Criterion of Stock Size
T. Katsukawa and Y. Matsumiya, University of Tokyo, Division of Population Dynamics of Marine Organisms, Ocean Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan

"Risk" in Fisheries Management: A Review
R.I.C.C. Francis, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand
R. Shotton, Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy

Wrap-up

Adjourn


POSTERS (each poster will be scheduled at one of three sessions)

Stock Assessment of Penaeus Shrimp in Two Fishing Areas of the Mexican Pacific, Mazatlan, Sinaloa and Guaymas, Sonora
Jorge Flores Oliveros, Centro de Investigacion y Graduados del mar, Mazalan, Sinaloa, México
Tadanobu Machii, Department of Fisheries Science and Technology, National Fisheries University, Yoshimi, Shimonoseki, Japan
Makoto Shimizu, Tokyo University, Department of Fisheries, Tokyo, Japan

Effect on Stock Parameter Estimates of Introducing a Sample Variability Correction Factor into the Raising Process
Manuela Azevedo and Ernesto Jardim, Instituto de Investigação das Pescas e do Mar, Lisboa, Portugal

Estimates of CPUE for the 1995 Crab Fisheries of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands Based on Observer Data
Laurence C. Byrne and Douglas Pengilly, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Kodiak, Alaska

Comparison of Assessed and Exploited Components of Surveyed Stocks in the King and Tanner Crab Fisheries of the Eastern Bering Sea
Douglas Pengilly, Donn Tracy, and Laurence C. Byrne, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Kodiak, Alaska

Incorporating Predation into a Population Assessment Model of Walleye Pollock
Patricia A. Livingston and Richard D. Methot, National Marine Fisheries Service, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, Washington

Effects of Change in Growth Parameters for the Vermilion Snapper from the U.S. South Atlantic Coast on Biological Reference Points
Boxian Zhao and John C. McGovern, South Carolina Department of Natural Resources, Charleston, South Carolina
Douglas S. Vaughan, National Marine Fisheries Service, Beaufort Laboratory, Beaufort, North Carolina

Evaluation of Multiple Survey Indices in Assessment of Black Sea Bass from the U.S. South Atlantic Coast
Douglas S. Vaughan, National Marine Fisheries Service, Beaufort Laboratory, Beaufort, North Carolina
Boxian Zhao, Mark R. Collins, and H. Scott Meister, South Carolina Department of Natural Resources, Charleston, South Carolina

LPA: An Estimation Method of Fish Population Size Based on Catch at Length Data
Takashi Matsuishi, Hokkaido University Faculty of Fisheries, Hakodate, Hokkaido, Japan

An Evaluation of the Present Status of Fisheries Data Sources in the State of São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil
M.A. Gasalla, M. de los Angeles, and A.R.G. Tomas, Instituto de Pesca, Divisao de Pesca Maritima, Santos SA, Brazil

Recruitment and Mortality of Pacific Littleneck Clams, Protothaca staminea, at Chugachik Island, Alaska
Richard Gustafson and William R. Bechtol, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Homer, Alaska

Adding a New Dimension to Fish Stock Assessment and Management: Spatial Analysis of the Groundfish Fishery of British Columbia, Canada
Ramón Bonfil (and other collaborators to be determined), University of British Columbia, Fisheries Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia

Mass-Balance Ecosystem Model Validation Using 15N/14N Data
Thomas C. Kline Jr., Prince William Sound Science Center, Cordova, Alaska
Daniel Pauly, University of British Columbia, The Fisheries Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia

A Comparison of Three Methods of Stock Assessment for Three Fisheries Stocks on the Kamtchatka Shelf
Vladimir P. Maximenko and Nickolay P. Antonov, Kamtchatka Scientific Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography, Petropavlovsk-Kamtchatskiy, Russia

Use of Stock Assessments in Setting Federal Quotas in the Groundfish Fisheries of Alaska
Jane DiCosimo and David B. Witherell, North Pacific Fishery Management Council, Anchorage, Alaska

Development and Evaluation of Diagnostic Goodness of Fit Tests In Stock Assessments Using Integrated Catch-at-Age Analyses
Andrew Betlehem, Ann Preece, Tom Polacheck, Neil Klaer, CSIRO Division of Marine Research, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

Modeling the Campbell Island Stock of Southern Blue Whiting: Exceptional Recruitment Saves the Day
Stuart M. Hanchet, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand
Vivian Haist, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Pacific Biological Station, Nanaimo, British Columbia

Multi-Fishery Stock Production Models of Billfish in the Atlantic Ocean: A Case History
Christopher D. Jones and Mark I. Farber, National Marine Fisheries Service, Southeast Fisheries Science Center, Miami, Florida

In-season Assessment of Southeast Alaska Pink Salmon Abundance Based on Commercial Catch and Effort and Sex Ratio Data
Jie Zheng, Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Juneau, Alaska
Ole A. Mathisen, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fisheries Division, Juneau, Alaska

Harvest Control for Schooling Fish Stocks Under Cyclic Oceanographic Regimes: The Need for Auxiliary Information
Marcelo Vasconcellos and Tony Pitcher, University of British Columbia, Fisheries Centre, Vancouver, British Columbia

Analysis of Catch and Effort Data in a Fishery with Uncertain Stock and Effort Dynamics with Application to the Longline Fishery for Southern Bluefin Tuna
R. Campbell, CSIRO Division of Marine Research, Hobart, Australia

Problems With Using an Environmental Based Recruitment Index: Examples From a New Zealand Snapper (Pagrus auratus) Assessment
Mark N. Maunder, University of Washington, School of Fisheries, Seattle, Washington

Spiny Lobster (Panulirus argus) Assessments in Florida: Syntheses of Diverse Data
Robert G. Muller, Florida Department of Environmental Protection, Florida Marine Research Institute, St. Petersburg, Florida
Rodney D. Bertelsen, Thomas R. Matthews, and John H. Hunt, Florida Department of Environmental Protection, Florida Marine Research Institute, Marathon, Florida

Shrimp Trawl Bycatch Estimates of Red Snapper (Lutjanus campechanu) in the Gulf of Mexico
Benny J. Gallaway, LGL Ecological Research Associates, Bryan, Texas
M. Longnecker, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas
John C. Cole, LGL Ecological Research Associates, Bryan, Texas
Robert M. Meyer, USGS Biological Resources Division, Kearneysville, West Virginia

Life Cycle Models in Arctic Fisheries Assessment
Ross F. Tallman, Central and Arctic Region, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Winnipeg, Manitoba
Trevor Thera, University of Manitoba, Department of Zoology, Winnipeg, Manitoba


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